Whereas it’s very early to be making sweeping selections about WNBA MVP candidates, there are just a few gamers who’ve separated themselves within the bigger conversations across the league. Napheesa Collier, Allisha Grey, and Caitlin Clark appear to be the names floating round most regularly amongst followers and media as the present high picks, which is backed up by all three being within the high six in betting odds.
In keeping with Fanduel, Collier (-340) is the present favourite, whereas Clark (+280) has the second-best odds, adopted by Breanna Stewart of the Liberty (+5,000) and a three-way tie between Grey, Mercury star Alyssa Thomas and reigning winner A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces (+7,500).
There are such a lot of issues that voters can take into consideration when making their MVP selection. Statistics are a instrument to tell selections, however they shouldn’t be the one issue that determines awards. Typically, a few of these deep-dive statistics can be utilized as tiebreakers if a voter is struggling to decide on between two or three candidates.
As an train, let’s check out the statistics of Collier, Clark and Grey side-by-side, (all numbers by way of Her Hoop Stats):
MVP Candidate Statistics
| Stats | Napheesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Grey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stats | Napheesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Grey |
| Group file | 11-1 | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Video games performed | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| Factors per sport | 24.4 | 19.9 | 20.4 |
| Rebounds per sport | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Assists per sport | 3.6 | 8.7 | 4.5 |
| Area Objective % | 52.40% | 41.70% | 50.60% |
| Area Objectives Tried per sport | 17.2 | 15.4 | 13 |
| Area Objectives Made per sport | 9 | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| Three-Level % | 42.10% | 35.50% | 42.30% |
| Three-Pointers Tried per sport | 3.5 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| Three-Pointers Made per sport | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Free Throw % | 93.10% | 79.40% | 81.40% |
| Steals per sport | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Blocks per sport | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Turnovers per sport | 2.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| Utilization Charge % | 29.80% | 28.80% | 21.90% |
| Offensive Ranking | 121.6 | 101.3 | 133.6 |
| Defensive Ranking | 90.8 | 94.3 | 97.4 |
| Win Shares | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
A couple of issues come out from this chart. The Minnesota Lynx have one of the best file not solely amongst these three gamers however in your complete league, which is one thing that carries plenty of weight within the MVP dialog. Until the Lynx expertise a tough patch, they’ll possible keep within the Prime-2 of the league standings all 12 months, giving Collier an edge over her Fever and Dream counterparts.
Taking place to precise participant stats, Collier additionally leads in each factors per sport (24.4) and rebounds per sport (8.5) — which is smart, given her measurement and place as a ahead. She’s a full 4 factors per sport forward of Grey and 4.5 forward of Clark. Clark takes the highest spot for assists, although, which additionally is smart on account of her elite playmaking capacity and place as her group’s major level guard.
Collier once more takes the highest spot within the three area objective classes — tried, made, and share — displaying off her capacity to attain effectively. Grey’s area objective share will not be too far off from Collier’s, however Clark’s drops off on account of her high-volume capturing model. That’s not a foul factor, it’s simply the best way Clark performs. It’s why she has each the very best three-pointers tried and made numbers — take extra pictures, make extra pictures. Collier then has the very best free-throw share by a large margin. It’s Grey, although, who shoots from distance with probably the most accuracy, simply barely edging Collier out (42.3% in comparison with Collier’s 42.1%).
Calculating every participant’s True Capturing share, which comes from dividing their factors per scoring try by 2, Grey has the higher hand. True capturing is used as a method to see a participant’s capturing stats while you account for the added worth of three-point pictures. Grey leads this stat right here with 65% true capturing on the season, Collier is at 63%, and Clark has a real capturing share of 56.5% to this point.
Relating to the historically defensive stats, steals and blocks per sport, Collier once more comes out on high. The blocks once more aren’t shocking, given she has the dimensions benefit over each Grey and Clark, however her capacity to get 1.8 steals per sport is spectacular. Grey commits the fewest turnovers per sport of the three, solely giving the ball up 1.5 occasions per sport in comparison with Collier’s 2.3 and Clark’s 5.3 (one thing she leads the league in).
From there, we dive into Her Hoop Stats’ extra distinctive statistical classes. Utilization charge measures the share of performs whereas a participant is on the ground that they use to shoot, get to the road, or commit a turnover, a class which Collier leads with a rating of 29.8%. Offensive and defensive scores are generally used statistics in basketball to measure the factors scored and allowed per 100 possessions when a person participant is on the court docket for his or her squad. Allisha Grey leads in offensive score with 133.6, which additionally occurs to be within the a centesimal percentile league-wide. Collier, alternatively, leads in defensive score, solely permitting 90.8 factors per 100 possessions, within the 97th percentile league-wide.
Curiously sufficient, Her Hoop Stats ranks one of the best gamers in any WNBA season by Win Shares over every other class. They outline this stat as “a complicated statistic that approximates the whole variety of wins a participant produces for his or her group via their play on the offensive and defensive finish of the court docket.” Each Collier and Grey lead your complete WNBA on this class with a Win Share rating of two.9, whereas Clark has a rating of 0.9. This makes extra sense given Collier and Grey have every performed 10+ video games, whereas Clark hasn’t even reached 10 but on account of sitting out along with her earlier harm.
Once more, these stats aren’t your complete image on the subject of MVP voting, and it’s nonetheless early sufficient for them to alter. Collier at the moment leads in 11 of the classes, and ties in 1, Grey leads in 4 and ties in 1, and Clark leads in 3 classes. The conversations round MVP within the WNBA proper now are leaning in the direction of Collier, and statistically, she is main the pack. It is going to be attention-grabbing to see how these numbers change at a later level within the WNBA season, but when the voting have been occurring right this moment (and I had a vote, which I don’t), my MVP choose could be Napheesa Collier.
