Saturday, June 28, 2025

After U.S. and Israeli Strikes, May Iran Make a Nuclear Bomb?

Maintain nuclear experience

Possible harmed

Earlier than strikes

Over the a long time, Iran constructed up scientific and engineering experience in nuclear know-how.

After

Israel says it killed not less than 14 of Iran’s main nuclear consultants within the latest assaults. However there may be one other tier of scientists in Iran who share a lot of that information. If previous expertise from earlier assassinations of nuclear expertise holds, over time, they are going to doubtless have the ability to keep it up the work.

Maintain nuclear experience

Possible harmed

Earlier than strikes

Over the a long time, Iran constructed up scientific and engineering experience in nuclear know-how.

After

Israel says it killed not less than 14 of Iran’s main nuclear consultants within the latest assaults. However there may be one other tier of scientists in Iran who share a lot of that information. If previous expertise from earlier assassinations of nuclear expertise holds, over time, they are going to doubtless have the ability to keep it up the work.

Mine uranium ore

Seems unaffected

Earlier than strikes

Iran has two lively uranium mines, each in central Iran. Iran has not reported how a lot it has mined lately, however the materials, it says, is contained in one of many mines, Narigan, can be sufficient for greater than 50 weapons.

After

Iran’s uranium mines haven’t been focused by strikes through the combating.

Mine uranium ore

Seems unaffected

Earlier than strikes

Iran has two lively uranium mines, each in central Iran. Iran has not reported how a lot it has mined lately, however the materials, it says, is contained in one of many mines, Narigan, can be sufficient for greater than 50 weapons.

After

Iran’s uranium mines haven’t been focused by strikes through the combating.

Convert uranium to fuel

Presumably destroyed

Earlier than strikes

The one recognized facility in Iran that might convert pure uranium into fuel, within the type of uranium hexafluoride, was in Isfahan.

After

American missiles severely broken Iran’s major uranium conversion web site, almost definitely destroying Iran’s capacity to transform pure uranium into the shape required to begin the enrichment course of. Rebuilding might take years.

Convert uranium to fuel

Presumably destroyed

Earlier than strikes

The one recognized facility in Iran that might convert pure uranium into fuel, within the type of uranium hexafluoride, was in Isfahan.

After

American missiles severely broken Iran’s major uranium conversion web site, almost definitely destroying Iran’s capacity to transform pure uranium into the shape required to begin the enrichment course of. Rebuilding might take years.

Enrich uranium

Broken however extent unclear

Earlier than strikes

That is the toughest a part of making a nuclear bomb. Producing bomb-grade uranium requires huge arrays of high-speed centrifuges to spin the uranium fuel and focus the enriched kind. Iran’s Natanz and Fordo websites held greater than 18,000 centrifuges, largely underground.

After

Israel almost definitely destroyed all of the centrifuges at Natanz. And the pinnacle of the Worldwide Atomic Power Company mentioned the centrifuges at Fordo, Iran’s different main enrichment web site constructed deep inside a mountain, appeared “now not operational” after the U.S. assault. Trump mentioned the power was “obliterated,” although different assessments have been extra cautious. Israel additionally destroyed crops that manufactured centrifuges.

Iran has claimed it has different, secret enrichment amenities. However there isn’t a proof that different operational enrichment websites exist. Iran has additionally been assembling superior, next-generation centrifuges at dispersed places and, except diplomacy or navy motion intervenes, might set up them at two underground amenities it has been constructing.

Enrich uranium

Broken however extent unclear

Earlier than strikes

That is the toughest a part of making a nuclear bomb. Producing bomb-grade uranium requires huge arrays of high-speed centrifuges to spin the uranium fuel and focus the enriched kind. Iran’s Natanz and Fordo websites held greater than 18,000 centrifuges, largely underground.

After

Israel almost definitely destroyed all of the centrifuges at Natanz. And the pinnacle of the Worldwide Atomic Power Company mentioned the centrifuges at Fordo, Iran’s different main enrichment web site constructed deep inside a mountain, appeared “now not operational” after the U.S. assault. Trump mentioned the power was “obliterated,” although different assessments have been extra cautious. Israel additionally destroyed crops that manufactured centrifuges.

Iran has claimed it has different, secret enrichment amenities. However there isn’t a proof that different operational enrichment websites exist. Iran has additionally been assembling superior, next-generation centrifuges at dispersed places and, except diplomacy or navy motion intervenes, might set up them at two underground amenities it has been constructing.

Retailer the enriched uranium

Most likely nonetheless exists

Earlier than strikes

Worldwide inspectors estimated this yr that Iran had simply shy of 900 kilos of practically bomb-grade uranium. Inspectors final noticed a few of the stockpile a few week earlier than Israel started its strikes. At the moment, it was saved deep inside a nuclear advanced close to Isfahan in particular casks sufficiently small to slot in the trunks of about 10 automobiles.

As soon as additional enriched, this stockpile can be sufficient to make 9 or 10 atomic weapons, however U.S. intelligence businesses assessed that Iran had not determined whether or not to make a bomb.

After

A labeled U.S. report mentioned that a lot of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved earlier than the strikes. The White Home has insisted that it was destroyed however cited no proof. The I.A.E.A. and European intelligence businesses consider Iran doubtless dispersed its stockpiles of enriched uranium across the nation.

The uranium of biggest concern has already been enriched to a purity of 60 %, vastly shortening the time required to carry it to 90 %, which is often thought of weapons-grade gasoline. However to take action would require some hidden, working centrifuges.

Retailer the enriched uranium

Most likely nonetheless exists

Earlier than strikes

Worldwide inspectors estimated this yr that Iran had simply shy of 900 kilos of practically bomb-grade uranium. Inspectors final noticed a few of the stockpile a few week earlier than Israel started its strikes. At the moment, it was saved deep inside a nuclear advanced close to Isfahan in particular casks sufficiently small to slot in the trunks of about 10 automobiles.

As soon as additional enriched, this stockpile can be sufficient to make 9 or 10 atomic weapons, however U.S. intelligence businesses assessed that Iran had not determined whether or not to make a bomb.

After

A labeled U.S. report mentioned that a lot of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved earlier than the strikes. The White Home has insisted that it was destroyed however cited no proof. The I.A.E.A. and European intelligence businesses consider Iran doubtless dispersed its stockpiles of enriched uranium across the nation.

The uranium of biggest concern has already been enriched to a purity of 60 %, vastly shortening the time required to carry it to 90 %, which is often thought of weapons-grade gasoline. However to take action would require some hidden, working centrifuges.

Convert enriched uranium to steel

Presumably destroyed

Earlier than strikes

Iran had one recognized facility to transform enriched uranium again into its stable steel state — a crucial step earlier than it may be utilized in a weapon.

After

Israel destroyed Iran’s uranium steel manufacturing facility at Isfahan. With out this essential functionality, Iran can’t make an atomic bomb. Nevertheless, one skilled cautioned that Iran has produced uranium steel at different places earlier than, and it might have a secret web site to conduct the work elsewhere.

Convert enriched uranium to steel

Presumably destroyed

Earlier than strikes

Iran had one recognized facility to transform enriched uranium again into its stable steel state — a crucial step earlier than it may be utilized in a weapon.

After

Israel destroyed Iran’s uranium steel manufacturing facility at Isfahan. With out this essential functionality, Iran can’t make an atomic bomb. Nevertheless, one skilled cautioned that Iran has produced uranium steel at different places earlier than, and it might have a secret web site to conduct the work elsewhere.

Make a bomb

Possible broken

Earlier than strikes

To construct a contemporary atomic weapon with the steel, Iran would wish to miniaturize essential elements, such because the detonator system, to suit right into a missile-capable warhead. It’s unclear whether or not Iran has this functionality, however consultants consider it has made some progress, and it’s thought to have experimented with triggering units. American intelligence businesses concluded final yr that Iran was engaged on a “quicker, cruder” method to a weapon.

After

Israel destroyed a number of buildings on the Sanjarian manufacturing facility that have been related to the event of detonation techniques and explosives, however Iran might produce other comparable amenities.

Make a bomb

Possible broken

Earlier than strikes

To construct a contemporary atomic weapon with the steel, Iran would wish to miniaturize essential elements, such because the detonator system, to suit right into a missile-capable warhead. It’s unclear whether or not Iran has this functionality, however consultants consider it has made some progress, and it’s thought to have experimented with triggering units. American intelligence businesses concluded final yr that Iran was engaged on a “quicker, cruder” method to a weapon.

After

Israel destroyed a number of buildings on the Sanjarian manufacturing facility that have been related to the event of detonation techniques and explosives, however Iran might produce other comparable amenities.

Ship a weapon

Nonetheless attainable

Earlier than strikes

With a weapon, Iran might conduct a nuclear check, as North Korea first did in 2006. There are a lot of methods to ship a weapon, but when it desires to strike a goal from afar, it wants planes or missiles to ship it. Till not too long ago it had 1000’s of missiles, lots of which might carry an atomic weapon.

After

Israel claims to have destroyed tons of of Iran’s missile launchers, however is unlikely to have fully worn out Iran’s capacity to fireside a nuclear-capable missile.

Ship a weapon

Nonetheless attainable

Earlier than strikes

With a weapon, Iran might conduct a nuclear check, as North Korea first did in 2006. There are a lot of methods to ship a weapon, but when it desires to strike a goal from afar, it wants planes or missiles to ship it. Till not too long ago it had 1000’s of missiles, lots of which might carry an atomic weapon.

After

Israel claims to have destroyed tons of of Iran’s missile launchers, however is unlikely to have fully worn out Iran’s capacity to fireside a nuclear-capable missile.

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