Is Ivory Coast’s pink card politics an personal objective for democracy after Tidjane Thiam’s ban

Even a stellar worldwide enterprise profession can’t put together you for the arduous realities of politics in Ivory Coast, the place some are questioning the democratic credentials of the West African nation most well-known for being the producer of a lot of the world’s cocoa and a few of its best footballers.

That’s the painful lesson Tidjane Thiam is studying as he waits to see whether or not deal-making within the corridors of energy and widespread strain from the road can rescue his bid to grow to be president of Ivory Coast.

Seemingly relentless progress in the direction of the election set for this October got here to a juddering halt on 22 April when a decide dominated that the 62-year-old had misplaced his Ivorian citizenship by taking French nationality a long time beforehand and never revoking it till too late to qualify for this yr’s vote.

Transferring again to Ivory Coast in 2022 after greater than 20 years in world finance, Thiam had instantly been seen as a possible contender to succeed present head of state Alassane Ouattara who, at 83, is now within the ultimate yr of his third time period of workplace.

A scion of a conventional noble household and an incredible nephew of the nation’s revered founding President, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, he had impressed as a prime authorities official and minister within the Nineties, overseeing infrastructure improvement and radical financial reforms.

A army coup then pushed Thiam to hunt a contemporary profession overseas, which culminated in high-profile stints as chief govt of UK insurance coverage large Prudential after which the banking group Credit score Suisse.

However returning house ultimately, three years in the past, he launched into a gradual advance in the direction of the following Ivorian presidential election.

After the dying in 2023 of former President Henri Konan Bédié, long-serving chief of the opposition Democratic Celebration of Ivory Coast (PDCI), Thiam was completely positioned to take his place after which on 17 April this yr he was chosen because the occasion’s candidate for the upcoming presidential race.

That was no assure of victory, and particularly if – as appears fairly believable Ouattara opts to run for a fourth time period, backed by all of the belongings and benefits of incumbency and a observe document of 4 successive years of annual financial development above 6%.

Nevertheless, Thiam stood out because the prime various.

As an opponent of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), he provided Ivorian voters the possibility to alter their authorities.

But together with his centrist politics and strong technocratic credentials, his candidacy provided reassuring competence and the prospect of continuous the spectacular financial progress that Ouattara has piloted since 2011.

Now that potential trajectory is blocked. If the court docket choice stands – and Ivorian legislation gives no possibility of attraction for this specific situation – Thiam will likely be out of October’s contest.

It’s a race from which previous court docket convictions have already excluded three different distinguished opposition figures – former President Laurent Gbagbo, former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro and a former minister, Charles Blé Goudé – all central actors within the political crises and civil conflicts that brutally paralysed the progress of Ivory Coast between 1999 and 2011.

The prospect now’s that Ouattara or any chosen RHDP successor candidate will method the election with out going through any heavyweight political problem.

That may solely deepen Ivorians’ already widespread widespread disillusionment with the nation’s political institution.

That is towards the broader context of a West Africa the place the novel anti-politics rhetoric of the troopers who’ve seized energy in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger already finds a sympathetic viewers amongst many disenchanted younger individuals.

That actually issues in societies the place, usually, three-quarters of the inhabitants is underneath 35.

Amidst this disaster for West African democracy, there have been some moments of encouragement.

In Liberia in 2023 and in Senegal and Ghana final yr, incumbent governments had been voted out, in free and honest elections whose outcomes had been accepted by all contestants with out argument.

The Senegalese end result, particularly, owed a lot to the large enthusiastic mobilisation of younger individuals.

Many hoped that Ivory Coast may provide an extra optimistic instance of democratic selection and the provide of change, and an instance that may be all of the extra influential as a result of the nation is a affluent regional powerhouse.

It’s the financial engine of the CFA franc single forex bloc and in addition to the cocoa business, it’s also a key hub for enterprise providers and finance and a number one political voice within the regional grouping, the Financial Neighborhood of West African States (Ecowas).

What occurs in Ivory Coast actually issues and is extensively seen, throughout West Africa and certainly, additionally proper throughout francophone Africa extra typically.

Ouattara is among the continent’s most distinguished statesmen, commanding broad respect internationally too.

And but now the run-up to the nation’s essential subsequent presidential election has grow to be ensnared in a return model of the identification politics that so soured the bitter disputes and instability of the Nineties and 2000s.

Again then, the governments of first Bédié after which Gbagbo used the contentious “ivoirité”, which means “Ivorian-ness” legislation to close Ouattara out of standing for the presidency on the grounds that his household allegedly had overseas origins.

It was solely in 2007 that the federal government scrapped the ban on his candidacy and solely in 2016 – when he was already in workplace – {that a} new structure ultimately ended the requirement that the acknowledged dad and mom of presidential candidates be native-born Ivorians.

The toxic mobilisation of identification points had been a significant contributing issue to the civil wars, road violence and northern separatist partition that brutally scarred Ivory Coast for greater than a decade, as much as 2011, at a value of hundreds of lives.

At present the nation feels removed from such large-scale battle.

There isn’t a widespread urge for food for a return to confrontation and politicians are staying properly away from the incendiary rhetoric of the previous.

However the Thiam saga exhibits how identification points, even in a extra legalistic type and on this hopefully extra peaceable period, can nonetheless weigh closely.

Ivory Coast solely permits twin nationality underneath sure restricted circumstances.

So in its 22 April ruling, an Abidjan court docket declared that, underneath the phrases of a little-used post-independence legislation, Thiam had robotically misplaced his Ivorian citizenship virtually 4 a long time in the past when he acquired French nationality – after a number of years’ examine in Paris.

Though he formally surrendered that this February, and thus robotically recovered his authentic citizenship, this was too late for inclusion on this yr’s register of eligible voters or candidates.

In useless, his legal professionals had argued that, by means of his father, Thiam had French nationality from start – which, if accepted, would exempt him from the twin nationality ban.

Looking for to spotlight the absurdity and inconsistencies of the state of affairs, he argued that, logically, the nation ought to now hand again its prized 2024 Africa Cup of Nations soccer title as a result of lots of the gamers even have French nationality.

“If we apply the legislation the best way (that) they simply utilized it to me, we have now to present the cup again to Nigeria – as a result of half of the group was not Ivorian,” he advised the BBC.

And Thursday may deliver one more setback in a scheduled court docket listening to the place a decide might now rule that Thiam can’t, as a non-national, lead the PDCI.

The previous two weeks have seen persevering with political and authorized debate over this complete saga, with the Thiam camp hoping {that a} mixture of widespread strain and discreet political negotiation will result in a compromise that lets him again into the presidential race, maybe together with the opposite excluded contenders.

And Ouattara, ought to he selected to not run, may wish to safeguard his spectacular observe document and safe his worldwide repute by intervening with some form of deal that permits Thiam to run.

With months to go earlier than the polls, there may be nonetheless time for that. However no-one is relying on it.

Paul Melly is a consulting fellow with the Africa Programme at Chatham Home in London.