Iran constructed its most important nuclear enrichment facility, Fordo, deep inside a mountain to protect it from assaults.
However the US has a bomb that specialists assume might in all probability attain the subterranean website. President Trump is contemplating a plan to make use of it.
Solely the U.S. army has the 30,000-pound GBU-57, or Large Ordnance Penetrator, that could possibly destroy Fordo, and it’s the solely armed pressure with plane that may perform a mission with it.
The U.S. army has concluded that one bomb wouldn’t destroy the Fordo facility by itself. To destroy the positioning, an assault must are available waves, with bombers releasing one after one other down the identical gap.
Technically, army and geological specialists say, it ought to be doable, however the mission is filled with dangers.
There’s a lot that’s not recognized concerning the facility, mentioned Heather Williams, director of the Undertaking on Nuclear Points on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research. “There could possibly be some further tunnels or amenities which are buried much more deep into the mountain,” she mentioned.
Including much more uncertainty, Rafael Grossi, the director common of the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company, who has visited the ability, mentioned final week that it was half a mile underground. However he could have been talking normally phrases, and most estimates put it 260 to 360 toes under the floor of the mountain.
The scale and weight of the GBU-57 — 20 toes lengthy and 30,000 kilos — implies that solely the American B-2 Spirit stealth bomber can carry it on missions. Whereas Israel has fighter jets, it has not developed heavy bombers able to carrying the explosive.
Fordo is situated in a hilly space 60 miles south of Tehran and 15 miles away from Qom, a metropolis of 1.4 million folks. Iran constructed the centrifuge facility, which is crucial to its uranium enrichment operations, within the 2000s realizing it wanted to bury it deep to guard it from assault.
Nuclear specialists have warned in opposition to any assault on nuclear amenities, however the radiation dispersal threat of placing Fordo seems to be restricted.
“The uranium hexafluoride gasoline that’s fed into the centrifuges is toxic however is heavier than air,” mentioned Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear professional on the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research. “On condition that Fordo is under floor, any gasoline that escaped as a result of a bombing raid would principally be contained inside the plant, even when it is instantly hit with bunker busters.”
In recent times, Fordo has turn out to be Iran’s most important enrichment facility. “They’ve the best centrifuges there,” mentioned Scott Roecket, a vice chairman on the Nuclear Menace Initiative, a nonprofit group devoted to lowering the unfold of nuclear weapons. “And they are often organized in several methods with a purpose to velocity up the method.”
With nuclear amenities at Natanz and Isfahan already broken in Israeli strikes — to what extent isn’t totally clear — Fordo could be a very powerful piece standing in Iran’s recognized nuclear program.
“If Iran wished to construct a nuclear weapon both within the quick, medium or long run, Fordo could be the logical place to do it,” Ms. Williams mentioned. “So if Israel needs to realize its targets for this operation, it actually has to determine find out how to remove Fordo.”
Current estimates by the Institute for Science and Worldwide Safety recommend that Iran might convert its present inventory of 60 p.c enriched uranium into weapons-grade uranium in three weeks at Fordo, sufficient to provide 9 nuclear weapons. It’s unknown, although, whether or not Iran has the weaponization capabilities wanted to take action.
In March 2023, the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company reported that it had found some uranium that had been enriched to 83.7 p.c purity at Fordo — near the 90 p.c enrichment stage mandatory for nuclear weapons.
Specialists say there are different choices for attempting to destroy Fordo. Israel might perform sustained air strikes with various bunker busters.
“They’re smaller, however provided that Israel has air superiority over the area now, they may offensively conduct longer-term strikes on Fordo to attempt to destroy it,” Ms. Williams mentioned.
The Israeli army might additionally put the Fordo plant out of operation for at the least a number of months by bombing the air vents, collapsing the egress tunnels and reducing off {the electrical} provide, Mr. Fitzpatrick mentioned.
An alternative choice is sabotage, which Israel has used up to now in opposition to Iran’s nuclear program.
Nonetheless, historical past means that an effort to construct a nuclear weapon is never stopped by army pressure alone. The assaults on Iran’s program might make the nation much more decided to pursue its quest for nuclear arms.
“I do not consider you may utterly dismantle the nuclear program via army means,” Mr. Roecker mentioned. “I feel it’s essential to negotiate a deal, with transparency and monitoring and verification, with a purpose to totally tackle a nuclear program. It’s the best solution to repurpose that facility.”
