Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin AVIV Ratio stays beneath historic peak ranges, indicating a possible climb above $330,000 earlier than a cycle high is confirmed.
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Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings are down considerably in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation by Technique, Metaplanet, BlackRock and others.
Bitcoin (BTC) worth has had a rocky month, however current evaluation signifies that BTC might surge one other 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s X publish highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s lively capitalization (cash in movement) to its whole invested capitalization (realized capital, excluding miner rewards).
Traditionally, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ imply deviation, it has signaled a cycle high. For instance, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, close to $20,000 in 2017, and round $69,000 in 2021. At present, the AVIV Ratio’s degree stays beneath these previous peaks, suggesting Bitcoin might climb to at the very least $330,000 this cycle, earlier than the +3σ imply deviation situation is met.
The AVIV Ratio gives a singular lens on market dynamics, reflecting investor exercise versus locked-in worth. A spike signifies heightened buying and selling or profit-taking, typically previous main worth actions. Van Lagen’s evaluation ties this to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, the place post-ATH rallies have traditionally delivered important beneficial properties. Nevertheless, its predictive accuracy lacks validation in various market circumstances, and volatility stays a wildcard.
Including to the narrative, information from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests giant traders are shifting holdings off exchanges, probably signaling lowered promoting strain or a shift towards long-term storage.
The declining balances at OTC desks this 12 months stem from strategic accumulation by institutional traders, led by Technique’s aggressive shopping for, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has amassed 10,000 BTC, alongside sturdy web inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which whole $128.18 billion in web worth. BlackRock’s crypto portfolio additionally holds greater than $70 billion in BTC, which sums up the present intent of main traders available in the market.
📊MARKET UPDATE: #BlackRock added one other $250 million in #Bitcoin on June 17 — marking six straight days of shopping for, now totaling $1.4 billion.
Its present $BTC holding is valued at over $70 billion. 🤯
(h/t: @arkham) pic.twitter.com/JmjNAu2kDY
— Cointelegraph Markets & Analysis (@CointelegraphMT) June 18, 2025
Associated: 25% Bitcoin worth rally set to observe at present’s correction if historical past repeats
Energy regulation places Bitcoin worth goal between $220,000 and $330,000
Just like Van Lagen’s $330,000 worth goal, one other examine by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With outlined a comparable cycle high for BTC. With’s evaluation leverages a 365-day easy shifting common (SMA) aligned with an influence regulation mannequin (R²=0.96), projecting Bitcoin’s worth might attain $220,000 to $330,000 on this cycle.
At present buying and selling round $104,000, BTC would want a 100% to 200% surge to hit these ranges, per historic peaks the place costs doubled or tripled above the facility regulation trendline.
With’s mannequin challenges assumptions of diminishing volatility, exhibiting Bitcoin’s worth cycles retain important swings, as evidenced by regular deviations from the trendline. Whereas optimistic, the researcher cautions that the evaluation attracts from solely 4 market cycles, urging skepticism.
Likewise, Cointelegraph reported {that a} checklist of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin might climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle high regardless of BTC reaching $112,000. Metrics like Pi Cycle Prime and MVRV present the bull market has room to run, supporting With’s optimistic outlook.
Associated: Bitcoin beneath $100K now ‘much less doubtless’ as BTC worth eyes liquidity at $106K
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
