Oct 22, 2022; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Sean O’Malley (blue gloves) defeats Petr Yan (pink gloveS) throughout UFC 280 at Etihad Enviornment. Obligatory Credit score: Craig Kidwell-Imagn Photographs The anticipated UFC 316 card — anchored by Merab Dvalishvili going for a second win over Sean O’Malley — is heavy on drama and underdogs.
Let’s get proper to swinging with a have a look at the very best bets for this combat card:
Serghei Spivac (-140) to Beat Waldo Cortes-Casta
Spivac is a a lot better wrestler than Cortes-Acosta, and whereas Spivac’s stand-up recreation is missing, his 8-inch attain benefit on this combat ought to assist him reduce among the hole in that space.
4 of Spivac’s 5 losses within the UFC have come by knockout, and Cortes-Acosta’s energy isn’t all that daunting regardless of his benefit within the stand-up recreation — he has only a 46.2% knockout charge in his 13 bouts.
I anticipate Spivac to climate the storm early earlier than making the most of a tiring Cortes-Acosta on the bottom within the second half of the combat en route to a victory by determination or a late submission.
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Sean O’Malley (+220) to beat Merab Dvalishvili
As somebody who efficiently guess on Dvalishvili within the first bout towards O’Malley on the Sphere this previous September, one thing feels completely different about this combat.
O’Malley appears infinitely extra centered within the lead-up, having minimized his distractions and antics outdoors of the octagon. He really saved that first combat nearer than most keep in mind, regardless of Dvalishvili’s goal victory — and he even had Dvalishvili on the ropes a bit bit within the fifth and remaining spherical.
O’Malley’s coach has mentioned in latest interviews that he believed the Sphere’s lighting and ambiance contributed to O’Malley’s loss, which isn’t that onerous to consider in the event you’ve ever been inside that factor.
Then again, we’ve nonetheless gotten the identical outdated, standard from Dvalishvili in his combat camp. He’s nonetheless posting his accidents on his Instagram Story — a lot to Dana White’s dismay — which tells me he may not be taking O’Malley that significantly.
By way of mentality, it feels just like the playing cards have flipped from the primary combat, and that’s why I really feel snug rolling with O’Malley’s worth right here.
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Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Peña beneath 3.5 rounds (-140)
Kayla Harrison is out to show she’s the UFC’s greatest star within the girls’s division this Saturday, and he or she enters as a large -800 favourite to win the belt — regardless of getting into because the challenger — towards scrappy Julianna Peña.
Regardless of this, Harrison’s odds to win the combat by determination are simply +235. Meaning Vegas is confidently predicting a stoppage.
Contemplating Peña is a extra skilled fighter who possesses knockout energy in her personal proper, I anticipate her to go looking for the kill early — understanding she has a diminishing probability with every second Harrison stays acutely aware.
Peña isn’t a scrub both, as she carries two wins over former champion Amanda Nunes. Somebody is getting stopped on this one — and it is going to be earlier than the fourth-round bell. Doubtless Peña.
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